The Great Slowdown?

To quote Bloomberg, ‘What Happens When TikTok’s Trend Machine Shuts Down?’

When/if TikTok is banned in the US, it will likely change the way we consume and create trends (especially micro trends that come and go faster).

Let’s dig into what this could mean…

Why this matters

Trends might appears in your WhatsApp or a myriad of other places, but, as Casey Lewis, of the After School newsletter, says regarding TikTok in the aforementioned article:

“So much happens there first”.

And while the platform isn’t going to be banned worldwide, the looming U.S. ban is hugely significant because it’s still the home of global pop culture (for every Squid Game, there are ten Yellowstones and the same is true of movies, music etc.)

How it affects the trend cycle

Most advertising dollars would flow to Instagram, Snapchat in some markets and Lemon8 or Little Red Book if ByteDance (TikTok’s parent company) has its way.

But, more importantly, we will likely see less micro trends.

The downside is that this will mean less ephemeral marketing opportunities for brands on social platforms. But the upside will be less brands rushing frenetically to the latest format blowing up on TikTok, which often isn’t the right strategic move for the product or service in question.

What’s next

Whilst it often doesn’t make sense for a brand to be spread super-thin across too many social channels, this does highlight the dangers of being over-reliant on one.

Does the same content created for TikTok also work on Insta Reels or YouTube Shorts? Yesterday was the best time to find out, but start today if you haven’t already.

On a related note, creators are, “adjusting their approach to partnership contracts to avoid being left holding the bag if - or when - the platform goes down”, as per Digiday.

What does this mean for marketers?

Keep. Your. Eyes. Peeled.

On the one hand, Trump might swoop in and save TikTok (despite being one of the original people calling for a ban).

On the other hand, January 19th might be the last day of TikTok in the U.S. and brands globally might need to change both how they find trends to leverage and - for those in North America - where the content is promoted.

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Bonus Link: Click here for a summary of how various industry insiders - agency and client-side - are preparing for the ban. TLDR: there isn’t one way to handle this challenge.

Bonus Bonus Link: Business of Fashion declares the, ‘Fall and Decline of the Viral Microtrend’.